I’ll freely admit: there was just too much going on this year for me to pay as close attention to the Oscars as I usually do. From moving and starting a new job to focusing on 2016 horror films to general world affairs, my attention was often elsewhere. To that end, I find that my overall opinion on (non) 2016 cinema will carry even less weight than usual this year: many of the opinions below reflect a mixture of gut instinct, general scuttlebutt and a general sense of which way the Academy tends to lean, at any given time.
For the purpose of full disclosure, I only managed to screen seven films out all of the nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Moonlight, Hail Caesar, Kubo and the Two Strings and The Lobster. As such, I’m sure that I missed lots of worthwhile films that may have influenced these (decidedly) uneducated opinions. Them, of course, is the breaks.
In that spirit and with those caveats, I present my guesses for the upcoming Oscar festivities.
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Writing (Original Screenplay)
What Should Win: The Lobster
What Will Win: Manchester By the Sea
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
What Should Win: Moonlight
What Will Win: Hidden Figures
Visual Effects
What Should Win: Doctor Strange
What Will Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sound Mixing:
What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
What Will Win: La La Land
Sound Editing
What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
What Will Win: Arrival
Production Design
What Should Win: Hail, Caesar!
What Will Win: La La Land
Music (Original Song)
What Should Win:
What Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Music (Original Score)
What Should Win: Moonlight
What Will Win: La La Land
Makeup and Hairstyling
What Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
What Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Foreign Language Film
What Should Win: A Man Called Ove
What Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Film Editing
What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge
What Will Win: Arrival
Documentary (Feature)
What Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro
What Will Win: 13th
Directing
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Costume Design
What Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
What Will Win: La La Land
Cinematography
What Should Win: Silence
What Will Win: Arrival
Animated Feature Film
What Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
What Will Win: Moana
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Actress in a Leading Role
Who Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie
Actor in a Leading Role
Who Should Win: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Who Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Best Picture
What Should Win: Moonlight
What Will Win: La La Land
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