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I’ll freely admit: there was just too much going on this year for me to pay as close attention to the Oscars as I usually do. From moving and starting a new job to focusing on 2016 horror films to general world affairs, my attention was often elsewhere. To that end, I find that my overall opinion on (non) 2016 cinema will carry even less weight than usual this year: many of the opinions below reflect a mixture of gut instinct, general scuttlebutt and a general sense of which way the Academy tends to lean, at any given time.

For the purpose of full disclosure, I only managed to screen seven films out all of the nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Moonlight, Hail Caesar, Kubo and the Two Strings and The Lobster. As such, I’m sure that I missed lots of worthwhile films that may have influenced these (decidedly) uneducated opinions. Them, of course, is the breaks.

In that spirit and with those caveats, I present my guesses for the upcoming Oscar festivities.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

What Should Win: The Lobster

What Will Win: Manchester By the Sea

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

What Should Win: Moonlight

What Will Win: Hidden Figures

Visual Effects

What Should Win: Doctor Strange

What Will Win: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Sound Mixing:

What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge

What Will Win: La La Land

Sound Editing

What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge

What Will Win: Arrival

Production Design

What Should Win: Hail, Caesar!

What Will Win: La La Land

Music (Original Song)

What Should Win:

What Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land

Music (Original Score)

What Should Win: Moonlight

What Will Win: La La Land

Makeup and Hairstyling

What Should Win: Star Trek Beyond

What Will Win: Star Trek Beyond

Foreign Language Film

What Should Win: A Man Called Ove

What Will Win: Toni Erdmann

Film Editing

What Should Win: Hacksaw Ridge

What Will Win: Arrival

Documentary (Feature)

What Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro

What Will Win: 13th

Directing

Who Should Win: Moonlight

Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle

Costume Design

What Should Win: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

What Will Win: La La Land

Cinematography

What Should Win: Silence

What Will Win: Arrival

Animated Feature Film

What Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

What Will Win: Moana

Actress in a Supporting Role

Who Should Win: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Actor in a Supporting Role

Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Actress in a Leading Role

Who Should Win: Ruth Negga, Loving

Who Will Win: Natalie Portman, Jackie

Actor in a Leading Role

Who Should Win: Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Who Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Picture

What Should Win: Moonlight

What Will Win: La La Land

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